Simulator
H-1B lottery simulator for weighted selection odds
Model your organization’s selection odds under USCIS wage-weighted H-1B cap selection. Enter registrations by OEWS wage level, pick a market scenario, and compare expected outcomes — including the old equal-odds lottery.
Interactive H-1B lottery simulator
Your odds
19 expected selections
out of 40 applications under wage-weighted selection.
By wage level
- Level I (1×)
- 1.9(18.9%)
- Level II (2×)
- 3.8(37.7%)
- Level III (3×)
- 5.7(56.6%)
- Level IV (4×)
- 7.5(75.5%)
Scenario pool mix
Assumed mix for 343,981 registrations: Level I 40%, Level II 42%, Level III 11%, Level IV 7%.
- Level I
- 137,592
- Level II
- 144,472
- Level III
- 37,837
- Level IV
- 24,080
How the weighted lottery works
Under the wage-weighted rule, each unique beneficiary is entered once, but the entry is counted more than once based on the prevailing wage level for the offered wage: Level I = 1 entry, Level II = 2, Level III = 3, and Level IV = 4. If multiple employers register the same person, USCIS uses the lowest wage level submitted to calculate entries.
Prevailing wage levels come from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) system based on SOC code, work location, and offered wage. This simulator uses a transparent expected-value approximation — not a full Monte Carlo redraw of the lottery.
How this estimate works
- Weighted scenarios build a pool from your chosen total registrations and an assumed wage mix (about 40% / 42% / 11% / 7% for Levels I–IV).
- Selection probability for a Level k registration is approximated as
min(1, slots × weight_k / poolWeightedEntries). - Randomized (old system) mode gives every registration the same probability:
slots / totalRegistrations. - Baseline pool size is 343,981 registrations (assumptions dated 2026-07-21).
Scenario guide
- Randomized (Old System)
- Equal odds for every registration — useful for comparing against wage-weighted outcomes.
- Baseline / drop scenarios
- Weighted selection with the baseline pool or 15% / 30% / 50% fewer total registrations.
- Custom scenario
- Keep the same wage-level mix while adjusting total pool size with the slider.
H-1B lottery simulator FAQ
How does the weighted H-1B lottery work?
Under the wage-weighted selection rule, each unique beneficiary is entered once, but that entry is counted multiple times based on the OEWS prevailing wage level for the offered wage: Level I = 1×, Level II = 2×, Level III = 3×, and Level IV = 4×. Higher wage levels therefore receive higher selection odds.
What inputs does this simulator use?
You enter how many registrations your organization plans to submit at each wage level, then choose a market scenario (randomized old system, baseline pool, registration drops, or a custom pool size). The tool estimates expected selections and per-level probabilities.
What assumptions does the estimate make?
Weighted scenarios assume a pool wage mix of about Level I 40%, Level II 42%, Level III 11%, Level IV 7%. The baseline pool size is 343,981 registrations and the model uses about 120,049 selection slots for odds math. These are educational assumptions, not an official USCIS forecast.
Is this the same as the DV / green card lottery?
No. This tool models the H-1B cap registration lottery under wage-weighted selection. It does not estimate Diversity Visa (DV) lottery odds.
Is this legal advice?
No. Lawckin provides this simulator for educational planning only. It is not affiliated with USCIS or the Department of Labor, and it is not a substitute for advice from a licensed immigration attorney.
Disclaimer
This tool is for educational planning only. It is not legal advice, not a guarantee of selection, and not affiliated with USCIS, DHS, or the Department of Labor. Registration strategy, LCA details, and petition filings should be reviewed with a licensed immigration attorney.
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